After a truly challenging 2024, 2025 proved rather sluggish for Italian machine tool, robot, and automation manufacturers, who saw little growth in production, held back by declining exports that were not offset by a sufficient recovery in activity on the domestic market. 2026 will be better, but forecasts are cautious due to the highly unstable context. This, in summary, is what emerges from the preliminary 2025 and 2026 forecast data just released by the UCIMU-SISTEMI PER PRODURRE Study & Business Culture Center.
In particular, in 2025, production stood at 6,420 million euros, marking a 1.5% increase compared to the previous year. The year was characterised by a sharp contraction in exports, which fell to 3,710 million, 13.2% less than in 2024.
Almost all the main destination markets for Made in Italy products in the sector recorded a negative sign, confirming the difficult international situation.
According to UCIMU processing of ISTAT data, in the period January-September 2025 (latest available data), the main outlet markets for the Italian supply of machine tools alone were: United States (423 million euros, -8.1%), Germany (196 million euros, -29.7%); France (145 million, -0.5%), India (135 million -4.2%), Poland (135 million, +13.3%).
On the domestic front, the recovery in consumption, which rose 20.5% to €4,465 million, drove growth in deliveries by Italian manufacturers to the domestic market, which reached €2,710 million, 32% more than the previous year. Although the increases in these two indicators are significant, the results are unsatisfactory as they are still far below the values achieved in previous years.
The export/production ratio fell again, stopping at 57.8%.
For 2026, the forecasts developed by the UCIMU Research Centre indicate (still) moderate growth in the main economic indicators. In particular, in 2026, production will grow, reaching 6,590 million euros (+2.6% compared to 2025).
This result will be determined both by the return to positive territory of exports (+0.7%) compared to the value of 2025, reaching 3,735 million euros, and by the increase in deliveries by Italian manufacturers, which will grow to 2,855 million euros (+5.4% compared to 2025), supported by the increase in domestic demand.
Italian consumption of machine tools, robots and automation will grow to 4,730 million euros, equal to 5.9% more than in 2025. Imports will also benefit from the recovery in domestic demand, as demonstrated by the forecast data indicating growth of 6.8%, to 1,875 million euros. The export/production ratio will drop further, stopping at 56.7%.
Riccardo Rosa, president of UCIMU, commented as follows: "After a 2024 was truly complicated, 2025 confirmed itself as the year of trend reversal with the transition from a negative sign to growth, albeit very timid, recorded by production data. In reality, we did not expect exports to weigh down the final result as they did.
"International geopolitical instability, open conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, President Trump's tariff war and the resulting new (dis)order in world trade have put our exports to the test".
"The performance that Italian machine tool manufacturers achieved on the domestic market was better than expected, however, where they only recovered a small portion of the ground lost in the previous two years due to the critical issues related to Transition 5.0 which, after starting with an unforgivable delay, underwent several adjustments, becoming easily usable only in the last months of operation, only to then suddenly close more than a month ahead of the deadline set for December 31".
"Despite the numerous difficulties encountered - continued President Rosa - the results However, the results obtained have demonstrated the usefulness of Industry 5.0, in addition to Industry 4.0, as a measure to support investments in new production technologies in Italy. "The hope is that the incentive measures envisaged by the government bodies under discussion in these weeks of finalizing the 2026 Budget Law will be truly easy to use and quickly operational. We Italian machine tool manufacturers," continued the president of UCIMU, "simply ask for clarity and immediacy. To work, the measure must involve little bureaucracy and must be released and made available from the first weeks of the new year. Only in this way will the measure—which on paper, as we have seen it, seems overall valid—be able to bring real benefits to the country's manufacturing industry."
"That said," added Riccardo Rosa, "we greatly appreciate the government's very recent announcement that it intends to focus on the multi-year nature of the measure. Having a measure available from the beginning of 2026 to 2028 is certainly a wise choice, allowing client companies to plan their purchases and manufacturers to organize production, thus best distributing work within their production capacity.
"On the international front, the weakening of some markets, starting with Germany, which is reeling from the automotive crisis; the difficulty of sales in the USA, our primary market, due to tariffs; and the closure of some particularly opportunity-rich areas such as Russia, require even more intense work to develop trade relations with traditional and "alternative" areas, including the Mercosur countries. For this reason," continued Riccardo Rosa, "it is disheartening to read in the newspapers that Italy is among the countries questioning the continuation of the process for the conclusion of the EU-Mercosur Agreement, which has effectively reached its final stage. Retracing our steps now, at a particularly delicate time for international trade, would be a grave mistake.
"Also on the basis of this agreement, over the last two years, the association has strengthened its initiatives dedicated to Latin American countries. In addition to the exploratory missions carried out in Brazil, designed to strengthen partnerships with the local system of institutions, businesses, and representative organizations, UCIMU has initiated interesting discussions with industrial representative organizations in Argentina, preparatory to new collaborations between the industries of the two countries. Furthermore," added President Rosa, "we have not neglected the so-called "associated" and "observer" countries linked to the agreement, certain that they too will be able to offer interesting opportunities to our companies. Among the Mercosur members, we have turned our attention to Chile where, following a reconnaissance mission, a project for the development of a Technology Center with the participation of local universities has been under consideration. Among the observers, however, our focus is on Mexico, where the Oficina Italiana de Promotiòn Mexico has been operating since the beginning of 2025, a desk that works to support Italian companies in understanding and penetrating the relevant market, including in Central and North America.
"With reference to Asia, India and the countries of Southeast Asia are of particular interest to us because they are characterized by very strong growth and a good predisposition towards us, as demonstrated by the dynamism of the activities supported by the association: from the India Desk to the ITC India Network and the IMT Vietnam Network, both recently renewed."
"Turning our gaze to Europe, while waiting to see how the German economy and manufacturing industry will respond to the measures implemented by the Merz government, the hope is that the EU will intervene to correct the timing and methods of the transition towards green mobility, thus avoiding the risk of industrial desertification in the Old Continent. The principle of technological neutrality is, in our opinion, the only correct response to this situation.”
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